要素自由流动能实现区域协调发展吗——基于“协调性集聚”的理论假说与实证检验

经济活动的空间集聚是当代经济内涵式增长的源泉,现有文献多从要素流动视角来考察经济集聚过程中的区域差异。然而,若将要素流动引入区域生产函数进行推导,可以发现非区域性要素集中规模的扩大,既能提高要素流入区域的劳动生产率,也能提高要素流出区域的要素收益率,基于此,本文以“协调性集聚”为核心概念,通过拓展现代集聚模型来构建要素在自由流动中走向协调发展的理论假说。实证结果进一步显示,虽然我国发展要素在大规模流向东部发达地区,并呈现进一步向超大城市和城市群集聚的趋势,但要素流动在提高要素流入区域劳动生产率的同时,也显著提高了要素流出区域的要素收益率,并从需求侧激发了要素流出区域的市场潜能,要素流动在要素配置效率不断提高的过程中呈现“协调性集聚”的趋势。因此,发达的要素流入区域通过优化公共服务体系提高劳动生产率,欠发达的要素流出区域通过建立健全要素自由流动机制提高要素回报率和收益率,是新时代我国形成市场主导型区域协调发展机制的有效途径。     

社会资本视角下农村基础设施管护效果影响因素分析——基于甘肃省9个市县的实证研究

以甘肃省9个县市的调查数据为基础,将社会资本划分为社会参与、社会规范、互惠网络三个维度,运用结构方程模型,来探讨三个维度对农村基础设施管护效果的影响。结果表明:(1)社会规范对农村基础设施管护效果显正向影响。(2)互惠网络对农村基础设施管护效果显负向影响。(3)社会参与对农村基础设施管护效果的直接影响不显著,但通过社会规范及互惠网络间接产生影响。(4)就总效应而言,社会规范对农村基础设施管护效果的影响要大于社会参与及互惠网络产生的影响。     

Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models

This paper investigates how geopolitical risks influence the prediction performance on the US stock market volatility with machine learning models. Further, it compares the predictive performance of individual and combination forecast methods. With SHAP algorithm, it could identify which factor has a great impact and fully extract the information of geopolitical risks in predicting. Empirical results show that military build-ups and escalation of war have great importance on predicting realized volatility among various geopolitical risks. The research further emphasizes the superior performance of machine learning and forecast combination methods, especially SVR method and trimmed mean combination. In addition, by allocating portfolio according to the machine learning-based volatility forecasts, particularly elastic net and random forest, a mean-variance investor can achieve sizeable financial benefits. Our paper provides substantial implications for political risk management and volatility forecasting.     

资源依赖、制度安排与区域创新能力 —基于空间杜宾模型

区域创新能力提升是我国加快建设创新型国家、实现高质量发展的现实需求。 本文通过构建涵盖资源依赖、制度安排与区域创新能力的理论模型分析其内在关系并提出假 说，运用2000-2016年全国30个省（区、市）的面板数据与空间杜宾模型，检验三者之间的影 响及空间溢出效应。研究结果表明：（1）资源依赖程度越高，越不利于本地区创新能力提升；（2）有效率的制度安排对区域创新能力有正向促进作用；（3）从空间溢出效应来看，本地区 资源依赖程度越高，越抑制周边地区区域创新能力提升，有效的制度安排能助推周边地区创新能力提高。     

组织支持感与员工创造力——相对组织支持感和情感承诺的影响

从自我提升视角出发，基于社会比较理论与社会交换理论，分析组织支持感影响员工创造力的过程机制，相对组织支持感的调节作用以及情感承诺与创造力之间的曲线关系。基于458份企业员工与主管的配对样本，研究结果表明：相对组织支持感显著正向调节了组织支持感与情感承诺之间的关系，情感承诺与员工创造力呈显著的倒U型关系，情感承诺在组织支持感与创造力关系之间起到了瞬时中介作用。研究结果拓展了对组织支持感的影响机制及其边界条件的分析，深化了情感承诺与员工创造力关系的检验。     

Knowledge sharing,knowledge leaking and relative innovation performance: An empirical study

External knowledge sharing and knowledge leakage often pose a strategic dilemma when firms conduct innovation activities. In this study, we focus on the positive and negative effects of this phenomenon. In particular, we empirically examine the effects of a firm׳s external knowledge sharing on its relative innovation performance under the contingencies of accidental and intentional leakage of business-critical knowledge. Results based on a survey of 150 Finnish technology-intensive firms show that external knowledge sharing has a positive effect on innovation performance, but high levels of accidental and intentional knowledge leakage by a firm׳s employees negatively moderate this relationship. These results contribute to the understanding of the potentially positive and negative issues related to external knowledge sharing and knowledge leakage, which have thus far remained empirically under-researched.     

个体不健康影响因素研究

社会的急速发展和重大变化给人们带来了很多富足的物质条件和特殊机遇,同时也带来了各种新的挑战、压力与不适应。究其原因是多方面的,是遗传素质、环境、教育(特指学校教育)、个人主观能力性综合作用的结果。本文从这四个方面,就个人成长过程中主观意志与客观环境的影响作用进行深入分析。     

经济学视角下自然保护区有效管理行为研究——以甘肃白水江自然保护区李子坝社区为例

以甘肃白水江自然保护区李子坝社区巡护监测为例,从经济学的视角,运用比较优势和竞合模型分析该社区巡护监测与专业巡护监测的两种行为。模型分析显示两者各有优势,在专业巡护监测的基础上,如果辅之以社区巡护监测能更有效地促进环境与生物的多样性的保护,既可以提升有效管理的水平,又可以达到社区保护利益的最大化。     

A tourist kit ‘made in Italy’: An ‘intelligent’ system for implementing new generation destination cards

This study investigates the advantages and the potentiality of the ‘tourist kit’, an Italian solution based on the concept of a prepaid card that is issued by a large postal operator. The destination card can be reloaded by tourists according to their needs and its validity is not restricted to short periods. Thus, the kit provides tourists with an integrated, practical, and flexible tool capable of making their stay more enjoyable as it allows cardholders to choose and buy many products and services at discounted prices. The kit creates customer loyalty by utilising smart technology aimed at collecting accurate tourist information. This model deserves attention because it is probably the world's first case of a large postal operator entering the tourism sector with the proposal of an integrated and advanced destination card scheme. This research also discusses interesting opportunities and challenges related to the implementation of new generation tourist cards.     

中国财产保险需求影响因素的实证研究

运用中国1980-2009年的相关数据,引入六个解释变量,采用逐步回归方法,对中国财产保险需求的影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明:与人寿保险需求截然不同,经济增长、人均收入、风险意识对财产保险需求未发现有显著影响;而固定资产投资、汽车拥有量和货物运输量对财产保险需求有着显著的推动作用.实证结果进一步解释了财产保险市场结构严重失衡的状况.